资本账户开放、系统性金融风险与经济高质量发展

Capital Account Opening,Systemic Financial Risk and High-quality Economic Development

扩大资本账户开放是中国完善社会主义市场经济体制的重要举措。资本账户开放不仅对经济高质量发展存在直接传导渠道,亦可通过“撬动”金融稳定导致系统性金融风险,进而对经济高质量发展产生影响。那么,资本账户开放影响经济高质量发展的传导效应究竟如何?本文运用具备随机波动率特征的时变参数结构向量自回归模型动态识别资本账户开放、系统性金融风险及经济高质量发展的时变特征,并通过资本账户开放关键时点的选择,详细刻画资本账户开放的传导渠道。实证结果表明:一方面,“资本账户开放—经济高质量发展”直接传导渠道显示资本账户开放短期对经济高质量发展有显著的、波动性的影响,但中长期传导效应并不明确;另一方面,“资本账户开放—系统性金融风险—经济高质量发展”间接传导渠道表明,资本账户开放短期稳健抑制了系统性金融风险增长,但中长期易受国内外经济形势波动影响出现抑制弱化,增强系统性金融风险对经济高质量发展的负向影响,推进资本账户开放的积极作用不能通过金融渠道长期有效地传导至社会经济发展中。因此,中国应遵循自身发展实际,渐进、审慎地推进资本账户开放,在防范系统性金融风险的前提下,疏通金融支持经济高质量发展的渠道。

Enlarging the capital account opening is an important measure for China to improve its socialist market economy system.The opening of the capital account not only has a direct transmission channel for high-quality economic development,but also fosters systemic financial risks by leveraging financial stability,which in turn has an impact on high-quality economic development.Therefore,what exactly is the transmission effect of the capital account opening on the high-quality development of the economy?This paper uses the time-varying parameter structure vector autoregressive(SV-TVP-SVAR)model with stochastic volatility characteristics to dynamically identify the time-varying characteristics of capital account opening,systematic financial risk and high-quality economic development.The choice of the time point describes in detail the open transmission channels of the capital account.The empirical results are shown as follows.On the one hand,the direct transmission channel of capital account opening-high-quality economic development shows that the short-term capital account opening has a significant and volatile impact on high-quality economic development,but the medium-and long-term transmission effect is not clear.On the other hand,the indirect transmission channel shows that the short-term and stable growth of capital account opening restrains the growth of systemic financial risks,but it is vulnerable to fluctuations in domestic and foreign economic conditions in the medium and long term,so as to enhance the negative impact of systemic financial risks on high-quality economic development.Moreover,the positive effect of promoting the capital account opening cannot be effectively transmitted to socio-economic development through financial channels for a long time.Therefore,China should follow its own development reality,promote the capital account opening gradually and with great care,and unblock the channels for financial support for high-quality economic development on the premise of preventing systemic financial risks.