粤港澳大湾区科技创新景气指数研究

Study on the Science and Technology Innovation Prosperity Index of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

在创新周期的理论基础上,选取2009~2016年的相关数据构建粤港澳大湾区科技创新景气指数,采用主成分分析法,对粤港澳大湾区科技创新能力的景气状态进行研究。研究结果显示:粤港澳大湾区的科技创新景气状态可分为剧烈波动期(2009~2013年)和平稳振动期(2013~2016年),2015~2016年科技创新景气状态呈现下降趋势。根据一致指数组指标对粤港澳大湾区内部城市进行分析,各指标的增长率曲线均符合整体科技创新景气状态的周期特征,其中专利申请及授权量、高新区企业数量和人均G D P的增长率在2016年均有所回升,说明大湾区景气状态将度过低迷迎来新的繁荣期。为了促进粤港澳大湾区科技创新发展,应当扩大湾区科技创新带、加大金融支持力度、深化产学研融合、促进“9+2”市协同发展。

Based on the theory of innovation cycle,this paper adopts principal component analysis method,selects the relevant data from 2009 to 2016 to construct the science and technology innovation prosperity index of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,and to study the prosperity status of science and technology innovation capability.The results of this paper show that the state of science and technology innovation in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area can be divided into severe fluctuation period(2009-2013)and stationary vibration period(2013-2016),and the booming state in 2015-2016 shows a downward trend.According to the consistent index group figures,the internal cities of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area are analyzed.The growth rate curves of each index are consistent with the cyclical characteristics of the overall science and technology innovation boom status,the patent application and authorization amount,the number of enterprises in the high-tech zone and the growth rate of per capita GDP have seen a rebound in 2016,indicating the prosperity of the Greater Bay Area will pass the downturn and usher in a new boom period.In order to promote the scientific and technological innovation development of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,it is necessary to expand the scientific and technological innovation zone of the Bay Area,increase financial support,deepen the integration of production,study and research,and promote the coordinated development of the“9+2”cities.