全球供应链视角下中国物流业国际空间关联测度与分析

Measurement and Analysis of International Spatial Association of China’s Logistics Industry from the Perspective of Global Supply Chain

中美贸易摩擦、新冠肺炎疫情等事件下国际市场产生激烈波动,对全球供应链产生巨大的影响。物流业是供应链的重要组成部分,利用2017年中国投入产出表和2014年世界投入产出表的数据提出物流业的剥离方法,编制包含独立物流业的世界投入产出表,从供应链的角度构建对外后向关联度、对外前向关联度和对外依存度的测算方法,并对中国物流业及其各行业与43个国家或地区的空间关联度进行分析。结果显示,中国物流业的对外依存度较高,尤其是航空货物运输和水上货物运输的对外依存度远高于国民经济平均水平;物流业与欧洲地区有较强的后向和前向关联度,与亚洲地区有较强的间接关联度;具体到国家层面,物流业对美国、日本、德国、韩国、法国等国家依存度较高;物流业对北美和欧洲区域的依赖度会进一步降低,国内最终需求对其拉动效应会进一步增强;全球供应链会进一步缩短,区域供应链进一步增强,与俄罗斯、巴基斯坦、匈牙利、印度、印度尼西亚、乌克兰、波兰、希腊等沿线国家的关联度会有所提升。建议实施对外贸易的多元化策略,降低对某个具体国家的依赖度;继续深化实施"一带一路"倡议,积极主动与沿线国家开展物流合作,强化区域供应链带来的物流业增长;平衡物流业的国际市场和国内市场,培育国内新的增长点,有效规避国际重大突发公共事件下世界经济整体下滑的影响;从物流企业层面开展应对重大突发公共事件能力的评价研究,以提高我国物流业的抗风险能力。

Under the background of China-US trade friction and COVID-19 epidemic,the international market is experiencing huge fluctuation,which will have significant impact on global supply chain. The logistics industry is an important part of the supply chain. Using the data of China’s input-output table in 2017 and the world’s input-output table in 2014,the authors put forward the stripping method for the logistics industry,and compile the world’s input-output table including independent logistics industry. And from the perspective of supply chain,the measurement methods of external backward linkage,external forward linkage and external dependence are constructed,and the spatial association of China’s logistics industry and its logistics activities to 43 countries or regions are analyzed. The results show that:first,China’s logistics industry has a high degree of external dependence,especially in air cargo transportation and water cargo transportation,which are far higher than the national economic average level;second,the logistics industry has strong backward and forward linkage with Europe,and strong indirect dependence on Asia;third,specifically at the national level,the logistics industry has strong indirect dependence on the United States,Japan,Germany,South Korea,France and other countries;fourth,the dependence of China’s logistics industry on North America and Europe will be further reduced,and the pulling effect of domestic final demand will be further enhanced;and fifth,the global supply chain will be further shortened,and the regional supply chain will be further strengthened,the association with Russia,Pakistan,Hungary,India,Indonesia,Ukraine,Poland,Greece and other countries along the routes of the Belt and Road will be improved. It is suggested that,we should,first,implement the diversification strategy of foreign trade to reduce the dependence on a specific country;second,we should deepen the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative,carry out logistics cooperation with countries along the routes of the Belt and Road,and enhance the growth of the logistics industry that is brought by the regional supply chain;third,we should balance the development of international and domestic market of the logistics industry,foster new domestic growth points,and effectively avoid the impact of world economic downturn under the background of major international public emergencies;and fourth,we should carry out evaluation on the capability for dealing with major public emergencies from the level of logistics enterprise to improve the anti-risk ability of China’s logistics industry.