中间商、反馈交易与小宗农产品价格波动研究——以大蒜为例

Research on middlemen,feedback trading and small agricultural product price fluctuations——Taking garlic as an example

以大蒜为例,基于行为金融学理论,放宽对中间商行为主体完全理性的假设,从有限理性角度研究小宗农产品价格波动的内生演化。大蒜中间商产生于生产与销售的专业化分工,其存在满足了市场结构的内生需求。然而当大蒜供需缺口较大时,中间商的反馈交易行为将进一步放大市场价格波动,引起内生交易费用的大量增加,市场均衡与帕累托最优之间的差距扩大,市场资源配置产生背离帕累托最优的扭曲。治理路径关键在于:加强对中间商的监管,增加市场信息供给,扩大销区冷藏规模,加快培育主产区新型农业经营主体。

Taking garlic as an example,based on the theory of behavioral finance,this paper studies the endogenous evolution of small-scale agricultural product prices from the perspective of limited rationality by relaxing the assumption of complete rationality of the middlemen.The garlic middlemen arise from the specialized division of production and sales,whose existence meets the endogenous demand of market structure.However,when there is a large gap between supply and demand of garlic,the feedback trading behavior of middlemen will further enlarge the market price fluctuations,which will cause a large increase in endogenous transaction costs,expand the gap between the market equilibrium and the Pareto optimality,and lead to the distortion of market resource allocation that deviates from Pareto optimality.The key to the governance path lies in:strengthening the supervision of middlemen,increasing the supply of market information,expanding the scale of cold storage in the sales area,and accelerating the cultivation of new types of agricultural businesses in the main production areas.