美国非常规油气投资决策经济评价主要方法及应用

Main economic evaluation methods and applications of unconventional oil and gas investment decisions in the United States

美国非常规油气开发现阶段执行联合作业协议或强制联营合同模式,由作业者提出钻井计划,非作业者决定是否跟进。投资决策成败的关键在于正确预测和评价初始产量、初始递减率等影响非常规油气产量曲线的关键参数。针对上述参数不确定性较大的特点,提出平均预测产量法、离散概率产量法、蒙特卡洛模拟产量法这三种不同经济评价方法。案例分析的三种方法结果对比显示,蒙特卡洛模拟产量法能够定量地得到决策关键指标净现值(NPV)和内部收益率(IRR)的分布概率,较好地解决了评价参数不确定性在现实投资决策中的定量处理问题,并准确地提出了投资决策失败的风险概率。

The Joint Operation Agreement (JOA) or Force Pooling has been widely applied in the unconventional oil & gas industry in the United States,with operators proposing drilling plans and non-operators deciding whether to follow suit.The key to the investment decision lies in the prediction and evaluation of the uncertain parameters such as the initial production,initial decline index of the typical curve parameters of unconventional oil and gas production.In view of the characteristics of high uncertainty of the above parameters,three different economic evaluation methods are proposed,namely,Average Prediction,Discrete Probability,and Monte Carlo Simulation.The paper shows that the Monte Carlo method,which provides the distribution of NPV and IRR,is a relatively proper method to quantitatively deal with the uncertainty of parameters in the investment decision,and puts forward accurately the risk probability of failure in an investment decision.