基于区域汽油消费增长潜力的中国加油站网络发展方向研究

Development direction of gas station network in China based on the growth potential of regional gasoline consumption

中国汽油需求趋势地区间差异明显,人口净流入地区能够保持增长,城市群和省会等城市集聚地区增长尤为明显。汽油零售网络应优先布局在广东、浙江、江苏、安徽和四川这些汽油消费增量较大的省份,各省市内汽油零售网络布局优化的方向应与城市集聚趋势相匹配,投资重点应优先考虑主要城市群的中心城市。分析2016-2018年主营单位网络发展实践,发现城市站占比提升对汽油零售销量有正向拉动的省区,具备区内汽油消费增长和新增站分布在城市集聚效应强的地区两个必要条件。在有些地区,由于新增站主要位于城市集聚效应弱的地区,导致城市站增加对汽油零售仍为负向拉动作用。

There are obvious regional differences in gasoline demand trends in China and the demand growth is remained in net population inflow areas especially in urban agglomeration areas such as city clusters and provincial capitals.The layout of gas station should be given priority in Guangdong,Zhejiang,Jiangsu,Anhui and Sichuan provinces with large increase in gasoline consumption.The optimization direction of gasoline retail network layout in each province should match with the trend of urban agglomeration and the investment emphasis of gas station should give priority to the central cities of major city clusters.Through the analysis of the network development practice of main units from 2016 to 2018,it is found that the increase in the proportion of urban stations has a positive impact on gasoline retail sales in provinces,which have two necessary conditions,namely the increase of gasoline consumption and the distribution of new stations in regions with strong urban agglomeration effect.In some regions,the increase of urban stations still has a negative pulling effect on gasoline retail since the new stations are mainly located in the areas with weak urban agglomeration effect.