海外工程所在国汇率波动与通货膨胀对工程利润的影响

The Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Inflation in the Project Host Country on the Contractor’s Profit

通过模型论证项目所在国汇率波动与通货膨胀对承包商利润的影响。假设工程款以美元支付且其它条件不变时,如果项目所在国通货膨胀水平高于货币贬值幅度,那么工程款中美元支付比例越高,利润越高;如果工程成本中以美元支付的进口比例越高,利润越高;利润和合同期无关;项目所在国的汇率贬值使得承包商利润增加;项目所在国的通货膨胀越高,承包商利润越低;如果可以在项目所在国贷款,那么当施工期间利率水平低于汇率贬值和通货膨胀之差时,可以通过借贷使得承包商利润增加。

This paper rigorously demonstrates the impact of exchange rate fluctuations and inflation in the project host country on the contractor’s profit through an economic model.Suppose the project host country’s inflation level is higher than the currency depreciation rate,and the project is paid in USD,then the higher the dollar payment ratio,the higher the profit;the higher the dollar payment of cost,the higher the profit;the profit is not affected by the contract length;the currency depreciation of the project country increases the contractor’s profit;the higher the inflation rate in host country,the lower the contractor’s profit.If loans can be applied from the local banks and the total interest rate during construction is lower than the sum of currency depreciation and inflation rate,the contractor’s profit can be increased through borrowing,ceteris paribus,and will be better as the amount of borrowing increases.