基于贝叶斯公式的索赔博弈模型分析研究

Analysis and Research on Claim Game Model Based on Bayes Formula

工程项目复杂多变,受新冠疫情影响,越来越多的工程索赔事件浮现出来。由于缺乏相关索赔理论支持,承包商在索赔谈判时缺乏方法和策略,本文对贝叶斯公式和博弈论在索赔中的应用进行分析,建立起承包商和业主索赔事件的有限次数讨价还价博弈模型,以期承包人在索赔时做出科学的最优决策提供策略支持。

The project is complex and changeable. Affected by the new crown epidemic, more and more engineering claims emerge.Due to the lack of relevant claim theory support and the lack of methods and strategies in claim negotiation, this paper analyzes the application of Bayes formula and game theory in claim negotiation, and establishes a limited number of bargaining game model of claim events between contractor and owner, in order to provide strategic support for contractor to make scientific and optimal decision in claim.