疫情期间政策获得感对出口信心的影响——基于8000余家外贸企业“双稳”政策问卷调查数据的实证研究

Impact of Policy Gains on Export Confidence during the Epidemic--Empirical Research Based on the Questionnaire Survey Data

本文基于商务系统开展的8163家出口企业问卷调查数据,从出口企业面临环境情况、外贸政策获得感和出口信心的分析角度进行实证研究,探查疫情期间企业的实际困难,分析疫情期间国家出台的系列外贸政策的实施效果。实证研究表明,出口企业面临的困难降低了企业出口信心,但疫情期间的出口政策的获得感显著中介作用了环境恶化的影响,提振了出口信心,且出口退税、出口信用保险、外贸信贷投放、贷款延期、人民币结算便利和贸易便利化六个政策单独的中介效应都显著,表明前期政策的精准性较好;然而单项政策的中介效应大于整体政策的中介效应,表明政策之间存在协调与配合的问题;同时,企业规模大小在外贸政策获得感发挥中介效应时起调节作用,表明不同规模企业外贸政策获得感的敏感性存在差异,需更重视中小企业的政策效应发挥。基于实证检验了外贸政策获得感影响出口信心的作用机理,并对外贸政策的制定提出了具体建议。

Based on the questionnaire survey data of 8163 export enterprises conducted by the business system,the empirical research was conducted from the perspective of the analysis of export enterprises’environmental conditions,foreign trade policy acquisition,and export confidence,to explore the actual difficulties of enterprises during the epidemic,and to analyze the implementation effect of a series of foreign trade policies.Empirical research shows that the difficulties faced by exporting companies reduce their export confidence.However,the sense of reliability of export policies during the epidemic significantly mediates the impact of environmental degradation and boosts export confidence instead.The separate intermediary effects of the six policies as export tax rebates,export credit insurance,foreign trade credit grants,loan extension RMB settlement facilitation and trade facilitation are also significant,indicating the accuracy of the previous policy.However,the intermediary effect of the single policy should be greater than the intermediary effect of the overall policy,indicating that there may be coordination and cooperation problem.At the same time,the size of the enterprise plays a regulatory role when the sense of foreign trade policy plays an intermediary effect,indicating that different sizes of enterprises has different sensitivity on the foreign trade policy.It is necessary to pay more attention to the policy effect of SMEs and to provide practical suggestions of foreign trade policy based on the empirical test and on the mechanism of effect of exporting confidence.