新冠疫情全球蔓延对亚洲工厂的影响研究

The Impact of COVID-19 on Factory Asia

新冠疫情导致亚洲工厂部分生产网络中断,加剧了对亚洲全球价值链的破坏,并存在发达经济体将生产活动(或价值链)迁移回本国的风险。本文通过构建亚洲工厂依存度模型,计算工厂依存度指数,监测新冠疫情影响亚洲工厂指数变化情况,找出新冠疫情蔓延对亚洲工厂影响方向;并且,进一步构建了Hallegatte(2008)的改进模型,预测亚洲工厂受新冠疫情影响的恢复情况。研究发现:亚洲工厂对中国的依赖程度仍然要远高于美国和日本,但其对美国、日本的依赖指数处于上升趋势;且亚洲工厂对中国的依存度仍然大于其他经济体。同时,新冠疫情对亚洲工厂的影响到其复苏呈现为大致V形即急剧下滑-急剧恢复的特征,在这过程中亚洲工厂的损害显示出同步地波动且传播迅速,这说明在疫情发生后立即向经济体及企业提供援助非常重要。我国应对新冠疫情措施坚决得当,实际上为我们迎来了亚洲全球价值链向中国迁移的又一个新机遇。

The New Coronavirus Disease(COVID-19)has disrupted part of the production network of Factory Asia,exacerbated the damage to Asian global value chains.Some developed economies have been moving production activities(or value chains)back to their countries.In this paper,by constructing the Factory Asia dependence model,calculating the factory interdependence index and monitoring the changes of the Factory Asia index affected by the coronavirus epidemic,we observed the direction of the influence of the epidemic spread of coronavirus on the Factory Asia.Furthermore,an improved model of Hallegatte(2008)was constructed to predict the recovery of Factory Asia affected by the coronavirus epidemic.The result shows:Factory Asia are still much more dependent on China than the United States and Japan,but their interdependence index on the United States and Japan is on the rise.Moreover,Factory Asia are still more dependent on China than other economies.At the same time,the impact of the coronavirus epidemic on Factory Asia has led to a roughly V-shaped recovery,namely a sharp decline and a rapid recovery.In the process,the damage to Factory Asia has fluctuated synchronously and spread rapidly.It is important that assistance should be provided to economies and enterprises immediately after the outbreak.China’s resolute and appropriate measures to deal with the coronavirus epidemic have actually ushered in a new opportunity for us to migrate the global value chain from Asia to China.