趋势面分析法在地下水动态预测中的应用

Application of trend surface analysis method in groundwater dynamic prediction

地下水与环境发生物质、能量与信息的交换,时刻处于变化之中。趋势面分析是利用数学曲面模拟地理要素在空间上的分布及变化趋势的一种数学方法,常被用来模拟地理要素在空间上的分布规律,在空间分析方面具有重要的应用价值。把时间变量引入趋势面分析,探讨用三维(元)二次多项式趋势面模型模拟地下水位的理论和方法。通过实例验证了趋势面分析法可靠适用,既可以内插水位,也可预测地下水位随时间的变化规律。应用此法预测地下水位动态只是做一点探索性的尝试,有待进一步研究完善。

The exchange of materials,energy and information between groundwater and the environment is constantly changing.Trend surface analysis is a mathematical method that uses mathematical surface to simulate the spatial distribution and change trend of geographical elements. It is often used to simulate the spatial distribution of geographical elements,and has important application value in spatial analysis. In this paper,the time variable is introduced into trend surface analysis,and the theory and method of groundwater level simulation with three-dimensional( element) quadratic polynomial trend surface model are discussed. The results show that the trend surface analysis method is reliable and applicable. The method can not only interpolate water level,but also predict the variation of groundwater level with time. Applying this method to predict the dynamics of the groundwater level is only an exploratory attempt,which needs further study and perfected.