移动APP的市场竞争“先入为主”吗——基于进入次序与业绩关系的分析

First-mover Advantages in the App Market:An Analysis Based on the Relationship between the Entry Order and Performance

APP应用软件的迅猛发展日益引起关注,但现有研究缺乏对进入市场的先后次序是否影响业绩的考察。本文以移动APP为研究对象,分别从整体市场、细分市场和特定市场具体案例的角度探讨了先进入者的先动优势是否存在、能否持续的问题。用进入顺序、进入间隔和进入时长衡量APP的进入次序,以用户活跃率、用户覆盖率和安装设备数作为因变量构建计量模型。回归结果显示:APP市场竞争存在进入次序效应,早进入者的业绩表现强于后来者;在不同产品类别的细分市场中,APP进入次序对用户活跃率的影响存在一定差异。移动音乐APP的动态竞争现状也显示,早进入者的市场业绩更为突出,但是这种先动优势并不是绝对的,后续的竞争策略也十分重要。研究结果表明,在具有网络外部性特征的产品市场中,“快”字当头的竞争意识不可或缺。

The APP industry is growing rapidly and has attracted much attention,but there are not many empirical researches on the order of entry.In most of the traditional industries,pioneers can achieve advantages in many aspects.It is the same for the APP industry.Moreover,the network externality amplifies the advantages.However,free-rider effect also exists in this industry,which can reduce the cost and risk of the entry of followers.These two effects make the results not clear,so the empirical analysis becomes necessary.This paper takes APP as the subject and analyzes the problems whether the pioneers can achieve advantages and whether this kind of advantages can be kept for long time in view of overall market,segment markets and a specific case.In the econometric model,sequence,interval and the time span of entry are used to respectively measure the order of entry,activity rate,and coverage rate.And the number of installed devices are set as the dependent variables.Results show that the entry order does matter,and the pioneer performs better;the entry order influences the activity rate and the magnitude of this effect is influenced by the type of APP.In the part of case study,mobile music APP market is analyzed,including 7 typical music APPs in China.The study finds that pioneers do perform better,but the advantage is not absolute since the subsequent competition strategies also play an important role.Correct entry strategy and subsequent competition are both necessary for a successful product.Differentiation is the main entry strategy and followers must form product features and market positioning that are significantly different from pioneers.Subsequent competition includes controlling of the copyright of music and musicians and the merger of APPs.The research reveals that,in a market which has the characteristic of network externality,the competition consciousness of“fast”is indispensable.