市场风险、价格预期与能繁母猪养殖行为

Market Risk, Price Expectation and Farmers’ Behavior of Feeding Sows

调控生猪养殖市场,保持生猪供给和市场价格的相对稳定,是我国政府的重要政策目标。深入分析并理解养殖户的养殖行为是实现该目标的关键。本文对不确定性环境下养殖户的能繁母猪养殖行为进行了研究。利用幼稚预期和ARMA模型预测生猪和饲料价格,并通过直接和间接两种方式度量生猪价格风险,构建了4个能繁母猪供给模型,分析了市场价格及其波动对能繁母猪存栏量的影响。结果表明:(1)市场价格及其波动均对养殖行为具有显著影响,但养殖户对市场价格反应更敏感;且相对于生猪价格,上游饲料价格的影响更大;(2)养殖户具有理性人特征,更关注于近期市场信号,而远期价格预期对能繁母猪养殖的影响较为复杂。本文建议稳定生猪供给除"稳价格"外还要在"降成本"上下功夫;同时,政府应完善生猪供需监测和数据发布制度,合理引导预期。

This paper analyses farmers’ behavior of feeding sows under the uncertainty environment. Naive expectation and ARMA models were applied to predict the prices of hogs and feed, and four supply models of sow production were constructed to analyze the impact of the market price and its fluctuation on the stock of sows. The results show that: 1) the market price and its fluctuation have a significant impact on farmers’ behavior, and the farmers are more sensitive to the market price;furthermore, the upstream feed price has a greater impact than the hog price;2)compared to the expected price, the farmers focus more on the recent market signals. The rationality and irrationality coexist during farmers’ decision-making process. This study suggests that in addition to "stabilizing the price", efforts should also be made to "reduce the cost" to stabilize the hog supply. Meanwhile, the government should improve the monitoring and data release system for hog supply and demand to guide expectations reasonably.