金融创新如何影响新兴市场金融和经济:兼论中国金融改革

How Financial Innovations Affect Finance and Real Economy of Emerging Markets:Rethinking China's Financial Development

金融创新和杠杆周期引致了经济繁荣和危机。本文通过抵押资产一般均衡方法研究金融创新如何影响各国资产价格、经济增长及金融危机的国际传导。研究发现:金融一体化会提高发达经济体资产价格和产出水平;当发达与新兴市场经济体金融发展差距较小时,金融一体化会提高新兴市场经济体资产价格和产出水平,反之则反是。金融一体化背景下发达经济体的金融创新经历杠杆化到证券化再到引入信用违约互换的发展过程,这将逐步降低新兴市场经济体资产价格和产出水平,也会导致其发生金融危机。本研究对理解中国金融创新与金融开放及其对实体经济的影响具有重要政策含义。

The rise of securitization markets and shadow banking has changed the international financial landscape,yet has been little explored by scholars.Using a collateral equilibrium framework,this paper studies how financial innovations in developed markets(DMs)affect asset prices and growth in emerging markets(EMs).The paper finds that in DMs,financial innovations under financial integration can increase asset prices and output.In EMs,when the financial development gap is small,financial integration can increase asset prices and output.When the financial development gap is large,financial integration decreases asset prices and output.When financial innovations in DMs progresses from a leverage economy to tranche economy and then to a CDS economy,financial integration will decrease EM asset prices and output levels gradually.This research can shed light on China's financial innovations and financial opening,as China's financial development has been following the leverage economy to tranche economy to CDS economy path.