货币政策不确定性研究进展

Research Progress on Monetary Policy Uncertainty

货币政策不确定性不仅对本国宏观经济和微观主体行为存在重要影响,而且对其他国家会产生溢出效应,是一国货币政策调控的潜在成本,日益受到理论界和各国政策当局的密切关注。本文对货币政策不确定性相关研究的文献脉络和新进展进行梳理、归纳和分析。本文首先介绍货币政策不确定性的测度方法和测度指标,其次阐述货币政策不确定性的主要决定因素,随后总结货币政策不确定性对本国经济活动的影响以及对他国经济的溢出效应,最后指出已有文献存在的不足之处,旨在为今后相关研究奠定文献基础。

The uncertainty of a country's monetary policy not only has an important impact on its macro-economy and the behavior of micro-agents,but also has spillover effects on other countries.It is the potential cost of a country's monetary policy regulation,which is increasingly concerned by theorists and policy authorities.This paper reviews,summarizes and analyzes the literature context and research progress on monetary policy uncertainty.Firstly,it introduces the measurement methods and indicators of monetary policy uncertainty.Secondly,it expounds the determinants of monetary policy uncertainty.Thirdly,it summarizes the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on domestic economic activities and the spillover effect of monetary policy uncertainty.Finally,it points out the shortcomings of the existing literature,which lays the foundation for future research.