税收不确定性研究进展

Research Progress on Tax Uncertainty

面对复杂动荡的国际环境和国内税制改革的逐步深化,税收不确定性问题引起了学界的广泛关注。税收不确定性主要来自税收政策和税收制度的调整,税法的复杂性、模糊性以及税收执法的灵活性等。税收不确定性的影响非常广泛,涉及微观企业的投资决策、宏观经济增长和社会福利等多个领域,已引起学界和政府部门的高度重视。20世纪90年代以来,关于税收不确定性的理论和实证研究开始大量涌现,但迄今为止还缺乏系统梳理。本文着重从税收不确定性的内涵、来源、度量、影响机制、经济效应以及应对举措等方面进行归纳和评述,并在此基础上分析了现有文献的不足以及未来的研究方向。

Under the background of the complex and turbulent international environment and the deepening of domestic tax reform,the issue of tax uncertainty has aroused wide concern in the academic circle.Tax uncertainty mainly comes from the adjustment of tax policy and tax system,the complexity and fuzziness of tax law,and the flexibility of tax law enforcement.The impact of tax uncertainty is multi-fold,ranging from firms'investment decisions and financial market to economic development,and has attracted great attention from the academic circle and the government.Since the 1990s,a large number of theoretical and empirical studies on tax uncertainty have emerged,but there is no systematic literature review.This paper mainly summarizes and reviews the source,measurement,impact mechanism,economic consequences and countermeasures of tax uncertainty.On this basis,this paper points out the shortcomings of the existing literature and the direction of future research,with the hope of providing references for follow-up research.