仿真模型可信度评估研究框架

Research Framework for Credibility Assessment of Simulation Models

仿真模型在军事、社会、经济等领域得到了广泛应用,与此同时,人们对仿真模型可信度的要求也越来越高。然而,仿真模型可信度评估牵涉到对大量定性和定量指标的测量与评估,需要综合运用多种方法和技术。通过分析多指标综合评估的一般步骤,建立了仿真模型可信度评估研究框架,并对研究框架中的13个处理过程及其常用方法进行了详细描述,分析了研究重点和方向。该研究框架的建立有利于从总体上把握可信度评估的基本步骤和方法,明确重点研究内容和方向,从而推进可信度评估研究和实践。

Simulation models have been applied in military,social and economic areas widely these years.Meanwhile,the credibility of simulation models is becoming more and more concerned.Whereas,credibility assessment is a very complex process,involves the measurement and evaluation of hundreds of qualitative and quantitative indicators,and requires the integration of heterogeneous methods and techniques.The research framework for credibility assessment of simulation models is constructed based on the analysis of multi-criteria comprehensive evaluation process.Then,thirteen processes in the framework and various methods for each process are introduced respectively,and the research keystones and directions are analyzed.The framework provides an overview of processes and methods for credibility assessment,outlines the research issues and directions,thus may advance the research and practice on credibility assessment of simulation models.