主产区粮食产量时空格局演变与影响因素

Spatial and temporal pattern evolution and influencing factors of grain yield in major grain producing areas

粮食主产区占据全国约78%的粮食产量,保障粮食主产区粮食产量对我国粮食安全具有重要意义。基于1998—2017年粮食主产区十三省份市域面板数据,采用区位基尼系数指标测度我国粮食主产区粮食产量时空分布特征及变化趋势,运用Moran’s I指数从空间相关性角度对粮食产量地理集聚效应进行分析,并在此基础上构建空间面板计量模型分析影响粮食产量的主要因素。结果表明:主产区粮食产量空间集聚特征加强,可显著分为三个阶段:平稳阶段(1998—2004年),集聚加强阶段(2004—2012年),平稳阶段(2012—2017年)。高高集聚区数量增多,多集中于中部和东北部地区,空间溢出效应明显。粮食产量受自然、技术、经济、政策多种要素影响,其中粮食播种面积、技术投入、城镇化发展水平、人均收入、农业劳动力数量、农业所占地位是驱动粮食主产区时空变化的主要因素。

The major grain producing areas account for about 78%of the national grain production.It is of great significance to ensure the grain production of the major grain producing areas for the food security of our country.The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and trends of grain yield in China’s major grain producing areas is measured with the panel data of the thirteen provinces in major grain producing areas from 1998 to 2017 by using the location Gini coefficient index,and then the Moran’s I index is used to analyzes the effect of geographically aggregate food production from the perspective of spatial correlation.On this basis,the spatial panel measurement model is constructed to analyze the main factors affecting grain yield.The results show that the characteristics of production space agglomeration in major grain producing areas are strengthened,which can be significantly divided into three stages:the stationary stage in 1998—2004,the strengthening stage in 2004—2012,and the stationary stage in 2012—2017.The number of high-high agglomeration areas has increased,mostly concentrated in the central and northeastern regions,and the spatial spillover effect is obvious.The grain yield is affected by various factors of nature,technology,economy and policy.Among them,the area planted with grain,technology input,urbanization development level,per capita income,agricultural labor force and agricultural status are the major factors driving the time and space changes of the major grain producing areas.