灾害冲击、社区韧性与城乡居民发展信心——基于云南民族地区调查的实证分析

Disaster Impact,Community Resilience and Residents’Confidence:An Empirical Study Based on the General Social Survey in Yunnan Ethnic Minority Areas

民族地区是自然灾害多发易发区,在切实提升治理效能、确保全面脱贫的历史关键阶段,关注灾害冲击的社会心理后果及其应对具有重要的现实意义。本文从风险社会的理论视阈出发,基于云南少数民族地区综合社会调查数据,对自然灾害冲击、社区韧性与城乡居民发展信心的关系进行了实证探讨。研究结果显示,累积性灾害会显著削减城乡居民的发展信心,且这种影响因社区韧性水平的不同而有所差异;较强的社区韧性不仅具有减缓灾害冲击的"软垫效应",亦具有提升居民发展信心的"引擎效应"。同时,提升防灾知识和物品储备的增量、激活社区社会资本的存量,对社区复原力和社区内聚力两项韧性维度具有不同的作用路径。

In the historically critical stage of improving governance efficiency and ensuring comprehensive poverty alleviation,it is significant to focus on the social and psychological consequences of disaster impact and corresponding countermeasures.From the theoretical perspective of risk society,this article explores the relationship among disaster impact,community resilience and residents’confidence in development based on the general social survey data collected from Yunnan ethnic minority areas.The results show that accumulative disasters can significantly reduce residents’confidence in social development,and the impact varies with the level of community resilience.Strong community resilience not only has the"cushion effect"of mitigating the impact of disasters,but also acts as an engine to improve residents’development confidence.Meanwhile,measures such as enhancing the increment of disaster prevention knowledge and resources on disaster prevention as well as activating social capital stock of the community all have different action paths on the two dimensions of community resilience and community cohesion.