新冠肺炎疫情背景下牛羊肉供需分析与展望

Analysis on Supply and Demand of Beef and Mutton under the Background of COVID-19 Epidemic and Its Prospect

2019年,受猪肉产能下降、消费需求持续增长及打击走私和牛羊扶贫政策等多方面因素影响,中国牛羊肉产量均呈现持续增加态势;价格持续高位运行,全年整体高于历史同期水平。同时,贸易逆差日益扩大,牛肉进口量创历史新高。新冠肺炎疫情暴发对牛羊生产造成较大冲击,短期牛羊肉消费下降明显,牛羊肉价格持续攀升。其原因主要为:一是母畜配种延期,造成仔畜供应减少;二是补栏进度滞后,造成中长期产能下降;三是部分地区短期生产性物资供给受阻,养殖成本提高;四是屠宰企业开工延后,短期内造成养殖户压栏,牛羊出栏量减少。从国际市场供给看,随着新冠疫情在全球的快速蔓延,国际市场的供给保障可能成为新的风险点。未来,需从加大财政和金融支持、完善产业链条、加快养殖机械化进程、启动储备制度和建立大数据信息系统等方面促进中国牛羊肉产业健康发展。

In 2019 the output of beef and mutton in China continuously increased,affected by many factors,such as the decline of pork production capacity,the continuous growth of consumer demand,combating smuggling and poverty alleviation policies of cattle and sheep.The price continued to run at a high level,which was higher than that of the same period in history.At the same time,the trade deficit was growing,and beef imports reached a record high.The outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic has caused a great impact on cattle and sheep production.The short-term consumption has decreased significantly,and the price of beef and mutton has been rising.The main reasons are as follows:First,the delay of female breeding results in the decrease of the supply of young animals.The second is that the progress of replenishment is lagging behind,resulting in a decline in medium and long-term production capacity.Third,the supply of short-term productive materials in some areas is blocked,and the cost of breeding is increased.Fourth,slaughtering enterprises delayes the start of construction,resulting in short-term pressure on farmers,slaughter of cattle and sheep is reduced.From the perspective of international market supply,with the rapid spread of COVID-19 epidemic in the world,the supply guarantee of international market may become a new risk point.In the future,it is necessary to promote the healthy development of China’s beef and mutton industry in terms of increasing financial support,improving the industrial chain,accelerating the process of breeding mechanization,starting the reserve system and establishing a big data information system and so on.