中国生育政策调整效果的区域异质性研究

Study on Regional Heterogeneity of Adjustment Effect of China’s Fertility Policy

文章借助双重差分模型,选择中国31个省份2005-2016年样本数据,将全国划分为东、中、西部、东北四大区域,考察了单独二孩政策,全面二孩政策对不同地区的政策效应,并考察了单独二孩第二年的政策堆积生育效应。结果表明,东、中、西部、东北地区"二孩"政策的差异较大。单独二孩政策没有显著提高东部地区生育率,但全面二孩政策有效提高了东部地区生育率,中部地区正好相反。无论单独二孩政策还是全面二孩政策都显著提高了西部地区的生育率水平,却都没有提高东北地区生育率水平。

This paper uses difference-in-difference(DID) model, selects the sample data of 31 provinces in China from 2005 to 2016, and divides the whole country into four regions: the east, central, western and northeast to examine the effect of the restrictive two-child policy(for the couple husband or wife of whom is the only one child of the family) and the universal two-child policy on different regions. The paper also examines the policy accumulative growth effect in the second year of the restrictive two-child policy implementation. The study results show that the effect of the two-child policy has relatively greater differences among the eastern, central, western and northeastern regions, that the restrictive two-child policy does not significantly increase the fertility rate in eastern China, but the universal two-child policy effectively raises the fertility rate in eastern China, with the opposite in central China, and that both the restrictive two-child policy and the universal two-child policy have significantly raised the fertility rate in western China, but not in northeastern China.