国际贸易对中国环境全要素生产率的门槛效应研究

The Threshold Effect of International Trade on China’s Environment Total Factor Productivity

深入研究国际贸易对绿色发展究竟是诅咒还是福音,对能否通过开放发展实现美丽中国的建设目标具有重要意义。本文基于1995~2018年省际面板数据,采用非参数方法测度环境全要素生产率(ETFP),并构建门槛回归模型,以人均GDP与人力资本为门槛变量,考察国际贸易对ETFP的门槛效应,结果表明:(1)从出口来看,对于人均GDP跨越了门槛的省份,出口对ETFP有明显促进作用;省区人力资本水平越高,越能有效发挥出口对ETFP的溢出效应;(2)从进口来看,随着人均GDP的增加,进口对ETFP的影响呈先下降后上升的U型趋势;进口对ETFP存在基于人力资本的双门槛效应,省区人力资本水平越高,进口对ETFP的改善作用越强。以上结果意味着东部地区应加快贸易转型与拓展贸易发展空间以塑造新竞争优势,而中西部地区则应引进与模仿关键设备与技术,并加速经济发展与人力资本积累,以释放贸易对技术的溢出效应。

It is of great significance to study whether international trade is a curse or a blessing for green development and whether we can achieve the goal of building a beautiful China through open development.Based on the provincial panel data from 1995 to 2018,this paper uses nonparametric method to measure the environment total factor productivity(ETFP),and constructs a threshold regression model.Taking per capita GDP and human capital as threshold variables,this paper studies the threshold effect of international trade on ETFP.The results show that:(1)from the perspective of export,for the provinces whose per capita GDP has crossed the threshold,export has a significant role in promoting ETFP;provincial human resources the higher the capital level is,the more effective the spillover effect of export on ETFP will be.(2)From the perspective of import,with the increase of GDP per capita,the impact of import on ETFP shows a U-shaped trend of first decreasing and then rising;there is a double threshold effect based on human capital on ETFP,the higher the level of human capital in the province,the stronger the improvement effect of import on ETFP.The above results mean that the eastern region should speed up trade transformation and expand trade development space to create new competitive advantage,while the central and western regions should introduce and imitate key equipment and technology,and accelerate economic development and human capital accumulation to release the spillover effect of trade on technology.