摘要
本文利用中国1998-2017年31个省的面板数据,采用多种计量方法就人口老龄化对经济增长的影响进行了实证研究,发现目前中国人口老龄化并没有显著抑制经济的增长。为了解释背后的原因,本文之后建立了一个同时包含人口老龄化和技术创新的静态内生性生产模型,将人口老龄化对经济增长的影响分解为正向的创新效应和负向的劳动力效应并实证研究,结果发现:目前中国人口老龄化的创新效应大于劳动力效应,因此老龄化对经济增长的阻碍作用并未显现;但是,分阶段看,随着老龄化的加深,创新效应正在逐渐变小,而劳动力效应正在逐渐增大。结果说明,通过不断推进技术创新,提高劳动生产率,能够在一定程度上抵消老龄化带来的负面影响,从而促进经济的持续增长。
In this paper, we estimate the impact of population aging on economic growth in Chinaby employing different empirical strategies, usinga panel of 31 provinces from 1998 to 2017.Results show that there is no significant negative effect of aging on growth.To account for this counterintuitive result, webuild a simple static endogenous model that includes both population aging and technological change. In this model, the impact of population aging on growth isdecomposed into positive innovation effect and negative labor effect.We then test the predictions of the model empirically. The results indicate that the innovation effect of population aging in China is greater than that of labor force.However, with the deepening of aging, the effect of innovation has been decreasing, while the effect of labor force has beenemerging. Our studies show that by encouraging innovation, the negative effect of aging can be partially offset due to the productivity increase.
作者
谢雪燕
朱晓阳
XIE Xue-yan;ZHU Xiao-yang(School of Economics,Beijing Technology and Business University,Beijing 100048,China;The W.Frank Barton School of Business,Wichita State University,Wichita 67260,U.S.A)
出处
《中国软科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第6期42-53,76,共13页
China Soft Science
基金
北京市社会科学基金重点项目“京津冀地区房地产金融风险传递及预警研究”(17YJA003)
北京市教委社科一般项目“京津冀市场化债转股模式的比较研究”(SM201810011004)。
关键词
人口老龄化
技术创新
经济增长
population aging
technological innovation
economic growth
