供应商集中度影响管理层业绩预告行为吗?——基于业绩预告精确性及其预告态度的视角

Does Supplier Concentration Affect Behavior of Management's Performance Forecast?——From the Perspective of Accuracy and Tendency of Performance Forecast

基于中国企业间关系信任的历史禀赋与现实情境,以2010-2017年A股公司业绩预告为样本,考察供应商集中度对业绩预告精确性与预告态度的影响。研究发现:供应商集中度越高,管理层业绩预告的精确性越低,预告态度也越倾向乐观。进一步研究发现:供应商集中度对业绩预告的精确性负向影响在业绩预告修正情况下作用更明显,在业绩预告未修正时企业更倾向于乐观的业绩预告;同时企业在自愿披露业绩预告情况下,供应商集中度对业绩预告精确性的反向作用更为显著,企业越倾向于披露乐观的业绩预告。以上研究为理解外部利益相关者与企业未来盈利预测之间的关系提供了直接的经验证据,丰富和拓展了供应商关系型交易影响企业信息披露策略选择的研究。

Based on the historical endowment and realistic situation of trust in the relationship between Chinese enterprises,this paper takes the performance forecast of A-share companies from 2010 to 2017 as a sample to investigate the influence of supplier concentration on the accuracy and tendency of performance forecast.The study found that the higher the concentration of suppliers,the lower the accuracy of enterprise performance forecast,and the more inclined to release optimistic performance forecast.Further research shows that the negative influence of supplier concentration on the accuracy of performance forecast is more obvious when the performance forecast is revised,and enterprises are more inclined to optimistic performance forecast when the performance forecast is not revised.At the same time,it is also found that when enterprises voluntarily disclose performance forecast,supplier concentration has a more significant negative effect on the accuracy of performance forecast,and enterprises are more inclined to disclose optimistic performance forecast.The conclusion of this study provides direct empirical evidence for understanding the relationship between external stakeholders and enterprises'future profit forecast,and enriches and expands the research literature on the influence of supplier relational transactions on enterprises'choice of information disclosure.