中国电影放映产业市场集中度对票房绩效的影响——基于省级面板数据的实证研究

The influence of competition in Chinese film market on industry performance——Empirical research based on provincial panel data

利用31个省级行政区划单位2012~2018年的面板数据,研究了各地电影放映行业的市场集中度、行业绩效,以及前者对后者的影响机制。研究发现国内各地市场结构存在地区差异但以竞争型和低寡占型为主导;各地行业绩效水平不一但趋势相同且存在拐点;回归结果表明一定范围内提高票价和地区人民生活水平的提高对行业绩效增长具有正向影响,而市场集中度与地区影院数对行业绩效存在负相关因果关系,其原因是地区内影院间存在合谋现象、新进势力差异化经营开拓新市场以及替代产品网络媒体快速发展对放映市场进行冲击。因此,建议总体上鼓励多建影院,向三、四线城市开拓市场,但对院线审核"严进宽出"精简数量;各地方扶持外省院线落地省内削弱地方垄断力量,从而减少区域内院线及影院之间可能存在的"串谋"现象。

By using the panel data of 31 provincial administrative units from 2012 to 2018,this paper studied the influence of market competition and industry performance.The results show that there are regional differences in market competition,but the competition type and oligopolistic type are dominant.The performance level of each region is different but the trend is the same and there is an inflection point.Regression results show that raising ticket prices in a certain range and the growth of income have a positive influence on the performance.On the contrary,market concentration and the regional theatre number is negatively related to the causality of the industry.The reason is that regional cinema chains make ticket collusion,new cinema chains use different operation to develop new markets,and substitute products network media rapid development impact on market.Therefore,it is suggested to encourage build more cinemas on the whole but reduce cinema chains,expand the market to the third and fourth tier cities.Local governments should support provincial cinema chains to expand the national market to reduce the possible phenomenon of ticket collusion in the region.