人工智能发展对通胀动态的影响及政策挑战——基于动态随机一般均衡模型的分析

Influence of the Development of Artificial Intelligence on Inflation Dynamics:Analysis Based on Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

人工智能的发展是生产力进步的表现,但广泛使用人工智能技术的经济效应尚待深入研究。基于人工智能对劳动的替代作用,将人工智能投资引入动态随机一般均衡模型,通过比较静态分析和短期动态分析考察人工智能发展对通胀动态的影响。稳态分析表明:人工智能投资效率提高和使用范围扩大均会提升劳动生产率进而提高产出水平,但对长期或趋势通胀没有影响;在人工智能发展初级阶段人工智能的发展会引起实际工资下降,而在相对高级阶段人工智能的发展会引起实际工资上升。短期动态分析显示:人工智能发展水平的提高,无论是投资效率的提高还是使用范围的扩大,都会导致通胀及实际边际成本对偏好冲击和技术冲击等外生冲击的反应变弱。人工智能的发展会使通胀动态与实际经济活动变化间的联系减弱,其原因是人工智能对劳动的替代作用使工资调整不再是应对外生冲击的必然选择,进而改变了外生冲击通过影响工资来影响通胀的传导机制。因此,发展人工智能在促进生产率提升和产出增长的同时,还会改变宏观经济变量间的传导机制,进而对通胀等政策调控目标变量的准确预测以及政策调整和实施的有效性带来新的挑战,也为金融理论研究提出新的课题。

The development of artificial intelligence is the manifestation of productivity progress but the economic effect on its extensive application needs to be deeply studied.Based on its substitution role of labor,this paper introduces artificial intelligence investment into dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to examine the influence of its development on inflation dynamics by comparative steady state analysis and short-term dynamic analysis.Steady state analysis shows that both of the rise of its investment efficiency and the enlarging of its using scope promote labor productivity and output,but it can’t affect long-run or tendency inflation.At the initial stage of its development,the development of artificial intelligence can cause the decline of practical wage,however,at its high-level stage,its development can give rise to the rise of practical wage.Short-run dynamic analysis argues that the promotion of its development,whether its investment efficiency rises or its using scope enlarges,will weaken the response of inflation and practical marginal cost to exogenous shocks,such as preference and technology shocks.Its development can weaken the connection of the change between inflation dynamics and practical economic activities.The reason for this result is that its substitution of labor makes wage adjustment no longer the necessary choice for the response to exogenous shocks and further changes the transmission mechanism of the impact of exogenous shocks on inflation by affecting wages.Thus,while we develop the artificial intelligence to boost productivity and output,we should face the new challenge during the process of accurate prediction of policy regulation objective variables of inflation and so on and the validity for policy adjustment and implementation and provide new issues for studying financial theory.