中国城镇化发展的动力选择:是人口容纳器还是创新集中地?

The Driving Force of the Development of Urbanization in China:Population Container or Innovation Gathering Area?

本文在传统城市多部门模型基础上,纳入城乡空间异质、城乡人口流动、创新聚集内生等基于中国现实问题的假设,从理论上阐释中国城镇化的内在动力从单一城市人口规模机制转变为城市人口规模与创新聚集双元机制的经济学原理,并运用2001—2015年273个城市和20个城市群的样本进行实证检验。研究发现:(1)城市人口规模和创新聚集是促进中国城镇化水平提高的双元动力机制,然而现阶段城市人口规模机制对城镇化的影响程度明显大于创新聚集机制,因此,城镇化目前主要是人口容纳器,形成创新集中地将是未来中国城镇化健康发展的主要方向。(2)农村人口规模除直接影响城镇化还通过“农村人口规模推动创新的规模”叠加资本这一途径作用于城镇化,资本会强化农村人口规模增长对创新的负作用,进而阻碍城镇化发展;“创新的规模推动创新聚集”叠加资本为城镇化发展提供“创造力”,资本驱动知识生产进而推动创新聚集,将有效提升城镇化水平。(3)中国20个城市群的城镇化进程显现出明显的异质性,半数的城市群城镇化动力来源于城市人口规模和创新聚集双元机制,其他9个城市群城镇化发展主要依靠城市人口规模的单一机制。

Based on the traditional urban multi-sector model,this paper incorporates China’s assumptions about urban-rural spatial heterogeneity,urban-rural population mobility,and endogenous innovation aggregation and provides a theoretical explanation of the internal dynamics of urbanization in China from a single mechanism of urban population scale to the dual mechanism of urban population size and innovation aggregation.Moreover,the paper uses a sample of 273 cities and 20 urban agglomerations over the period of 2001-2015 to conduct the empirical tests.The results show that,(1)The urban population scale and innovation aggregation are dual dynamic mechanisms that promote the development of urbanization in China.However,the urban population scale has a greater impact on urbanization than the innovation aggregation at this stage.Therefore,at present,urbanization is mainly a population container.The innovation aggregation will be the main direction of healthy development of urbanization in the future.(2)In addition to directly affecting urbanization,the size of the rural population also acts on urbanization through the superposition of"the scale of rural population to promote the scale of innovation".The capitals will strengthen the negative impact of rural population growth on innovation,and thus hinder the development of urbanization.The superimposed capital of"Innovative scale promotes innovation aggregation"provides"creativity"for urbanization development,and capital drives knowledge production and then promotes innovation gathering,which will effectively improve the level of urbanization.(3)The urbanization of 20 urban agglomerations in China shows a significant heterogeneity.The motivation of half of urban agglomerations comes from the dual mechanism of urban population scale and innovation aggregation.The other nine urban agglomerations’urbanization mainly depends on the urban population scale.