人工智能、劳动收入份额与社会福利

Artificial Intelligence,Labor Income Share and Social Welfare

近年来,人工智能在全球范围内蓬勃发展,基于这一现实,本文构建包含人工智能的动态随机一般均衡模型,考察人工智能发展对劳动收入份额以及社会福利产生的影响。稳态分析的结果显示:(1)无论是人工智能投资效率提高,还是人工智能使用范围扩大,人工智能发展均推动了经济中稳态劳动生产率提高和产出增加,但对实际工资和消费的影响取决于人工智能的发展阶段;(2)人工智能发展降低了劳动收入份额。短期分析结果显示,人工智能投资效率越高,使用范围越广,劳动收入份额下降的幅度越大。在此基础上,基于本文分析框架进行福利分析的结果表明,人工智能发展对社会福利的影响取决于人工智能的发展阶段:在初级阶段,人工智能发展引致消费和就业较大波动,进而导致社会福利恶化;在相对高级阶段,人工智能发展仅引起消费和就业相对较小波动,并且相对改善了社会福利。

In recent years,artificial intelligence developed rapidly in the world wide.Based on this fact,this paper proposes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with artificial intelligence,and investigates the impacts of artificial intelligence on labor income share and social welfare.The result of steady state analysis shows:(1)the development of artificial intelligence has promoted steady state labor efficiency and output both for the boost of artificial intelligence investment efficiency and the expansion of the coverage of artificial intelligence,But the impact on real wage and consumption depends on the stage of the development of artificial intelligence.(2)the development of artificial intelligence has decreased the labor income share.Short run analysis argues that,the more efficiency of artificial intelligence investment,and the wider of the coverage of artificial intelligence,the more labor income share drops.Further,the result of welfare analysis points that the effects on social welfare have been determined by the stage of the development artificial intelligence.That is,in the primary stage,consumption and employment shows greater volatility,and social welfare worsens along with the development of artificial intelligence.But in the relative advanced stage,consumption and employment shows smaller volatility,and social welfare improves.