煤制烯烃项目环境经济损益评价

Evaluation of environmental economic profit and loss of coal-to-olefin project

采用费用效益评价方法量化煤制烯烃项目运行中对环境所产生的碳排放、大气污染、水污染、固废污染,可定量分析环境经济损益对项目经济性风险的影响,以期为煤制烯烃企业预防环境风险提供支撑。结合我国碳交易市场和新环保税法等政策对典型规模的煤制烯烃项目进行环境经济损益评价,并预设情景对未来煤制烯烃项目的发展进行情景分析评价。结果表明,在综合考虑项目对外部环境造成的环境损失费用时,项目环境经济风险值增加13%,说明煤制烯烃项目对外部环境造成的影响显著,尤其目前环保政策日益趋紧,由此产生的环境经济性风险会更加突出;在不同预设情景分析下,煤制烯烃项目的效益费用比均大于1,说明煤制烯烃项目的经济性效益良好;在进行多因素经济性评价时,项目环境经济性对产品价格的敏感度较为突出。

The cost-benefit assessment method is used to quantify the environmental carbon emissions,air pollution,water pollution and solid waste pollution generated by the operation of coal-to-olefin projects,which can quantitatively analyze the impact of environmental and economic profit and loss on the economic risks of projects,so as to provide support for coal-to-olefin enterprises to prevent environmental risks.In combination with China’s carbon trading market and the new environmental protection tax law,environmental economic profit and loss assessment were carried out for typical coal-to-olefin projects,and scenario analysis and assessment were carried out for future development of coal-to-olefin projects.The results show that the environmental economic risk value of the project increases by 13%when considering the environmental loss cost caused by the project to the external environment,which indicates that the coal-to-olefin project has a significant impact on the external environment.Under different scenarios,the benefit cost ratio of coal-to-olefin projects is more than 1,indicating that coal-to-olefin projects have good economic benefits.In the multi-factor economic evaluation,the environmental economy of the project is more sensitive to the product price.