环渤海地区人海关系地域系统弹性评价

Evaluation of Regional System Resilience of Human-sea Relations in the Bohai Rim

基于人海关系地域系统与弹性内涵,提出人海关系地域系统弹性内涵,构建“抵抗-适应-转换”人海关系地域系弹性研究框架和指标体系,运用递阶综合指数法和均值标准差分类法分析环渤海地区人海关系地域系统弹性的时空差异。结果表明:①环渤海地区人海关系地域系统弹性不断增强,17年间实现了由低弹性向高弹性发展阶段的跨越;②人海资源环境系统抵抗能力地区间差异较小,呈北-西-南抵抗能力逐渐减小的“梯度化”分异特征;人海经济系统适应能力较弱,区域间差异较小;人海社会系统转换能力突出,地区差异较大呈现“集群化”分异特征;③将环渤海地区人海关系地域系统弹性分为3类,弹性高级类型区(0.445~1.000)为天津市;弹性中级类型区(0.364~0.445)有大连、青岛、东营、烟台和威海;弹性初级类型区(0.000〜0.364)有唐山、秦皇岛、沧州、丹东、锦州、营口、盘锦、葫芦岛、潍坊、日照和滨州。

Based on the human-sea relationship regional system and resilience connotation,this paper proposes the human-sea relationship regional system resilience connotation,constructs a"resistance-adaptation-transformation"human-sea relationship regional system resilience research framework and index system,and uses a hierarchical comprehensive index method and a mean standard deviation classification.To analyze the spatial-temporal differences in the resilience of the regional system of human-sea relations in the Bohai Rim region.The results show that:①The overall resilience of the regional system of human-sea relations in the Bohai Rim region has been continuously enhanced,and in 17 years,it has achieved a leap from low resilience to high resilience;②The human-sea resource and environmental system's resistance varies slightly between regions,showing a"gradient"differentiation characteristic of decreasing North-West-South resistance;The human-sea economic system has weak adaptability and small regional differences;The human-sea social system has outstanding transformation capabilities,with large regional differences showing"clustering"differentiation characteristics;③The resilience of the regional system of human-sea relations in the Bohai Rim region is divided into three types,and the resilience high-level type area is Tianjin;the resilience intermediate types include Dalian,Qingdao,Dongying,Yantai,and Weihai;the resilience primary type areas are Tangshan,Qinhuangdao,Cangzhou,Dandong,Jinzhou,Yingkou,Panjin,Huludao,Weifang,Rizhao and Binzhou.