农村人口老龄化、非农就业与土地流转——基于CHARLS数据的实证分析

Rural Population Aging,Non-Agricultural Employment and Land Transfer:Empirical Analysis Based on CHARLS Data

基于农村人口老龄化、非农就业与土地流转理论分析的基础上,利用2015年中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)数据,实证分析农村人口老龄化对土地流转的影响。研究发现:人口老龄化对土地转出的正向影响和对土地转入的负向影响均显著。进一步通过中介效应检验发现,人口老龄化通过抑制户主非农就业来抑制家庭转出土地,促进家庭转入土地。非农就业在人口老龄化与土地转出之间的间接作用是遮掩效应,非农就业在人口老龄化与土地转入之间的间接作用也是遮掩效应。最后基于实证结论从土地流转市场供给和需求两个视角提出促进农村土地流转市场发展的政策建议。

Based on the theoretical analysis of population aging,non-agricultural employment and land transfer,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of population aging on land transfer with the data of China Health and Pension Tracking Survey(CHARLS)in 2015.It is found that both the positive impact of population aging on land transfer and the negative impact on land transfer are significant.Through the mediating effect test,it further shows that the population aging restrains the land from renting out by inhibiting the householders’non-agricultural employment and promotes the hire of land.The indirect role of non-agricultural employment between population aging and land transfer is the masking effect.Finally,based on the empirical conclusion,policyoriented suggestions are proposed from the two aspects of the supply and demand of land transfer.