增量配电业务投资决策风险分析及风险评估模型研究

Risk Analysis And Risk Assessment Model Of Incremental Power Distribution Business Investment Decision

在国家大力推进电力体制改革的前提下,提出了逐步开放增量配电业务投资,有计划引入其他类型资本对增量配电业务进行投资.这从多个方面对传统配电网的投资工作带来了一定程度的影响,具体包括投资重点、投资规模、投资回报、投资风险等.本文基于增量配电业务不同投资主体的诉求,分析了各类投资的风险点,并且给出了一种风险评估模型,能够有效指导投资方的投资风险防控,最大限度保证投资方的经济利益.

Under the premise that the state vigorously promotes the reform of electric power system,the paper proposes to gradually open up the incremental investment in power distribution business and introduce social capital to invest in the incremental investment in power distribution business.This has a certain degree of influence on the investment of traditional distribution network from many aspects,including investment focus,investment scale,investment return,investment risk,etc.Based on the demands of different investors in the incremental distribution business,this paper analyzes the risk points of all kinds of investments,and presents a risk assessment model,which can effectively guide the investment risk prevention and control of investors and maximize the economic benefits of investors.