广西边境地区高致病性禽流感风险分析

Risk Analysis of HPAI in Border Areas of Guangxi

为评估广西边境地区高致病性禽流感防控形势,根据文献报道的高致病性禽流感风险评估模型,对生态环境、候鸟迁徙及数量、饲养模式、运输和贸易、屠宰和废物处理、本地和周边地区的疫情形势、预防和控制措施等7大准则层22项指标综合计算发现,边境县(市、区)高致病性禽流感发生风险概率>0.5,为中度风险以上,其中靖西、东兴、防城和港口发生风险概率>0.6,为高风险。高风险因素主要为:市场被污染、越南疫情严重、水禽占比高,饲养管理和生物安全水平低、位于候鸟迁徙线上、市场管理水平低、市场卫生条件差、屠宰管理不到位、边境地区兽医机构效能不高。为防止广西边境地区高致病性禽流感的发生,必须要提高生物安全措施、做好免疫接种、加强监测和流行病学调查工作、提高兽医机构效能。

In order to assess the situation of HPAI control in border Areas of Guangxi,using a risk assessment model for analysis of spread of HPAI reported by literature,Calculated from 22 indexes of 7 criterion layers such as ecological environment,migration and distribution of migrant bird,feeding patterns,traffic and trade,slaughter and waste processing,epidemic situation in the local and around areas,prevention and control measures,risk probabilities of HPAI in all border counties were>0.5,moderate risk and above. Among them,Jingxi,Dongxing,Fangcheng and Gangkou were>0.6,and high risk. The major high risk factors were polluted LBMs,serious Vietnam epidemics,high proportion of waterfowl,low feeding management and bio-security level,migratory route of migratory bird,poor management and sanitary conditions of LBMs,insufficient management of poultry slaughtering,and low level of performance of veterinary services in border Areas of Guangxi. In order to prevent outbreak of HPAI,it is must to strengthen and raise bio-security,vaccination,surveillance and epidemiology investigation,PVS in border Areas of Guangxi.