去产能政策对煤炭企业的影响研究

The Impact of Cutting Overcapacity Policy on Coal Enterprises

利用事件分析法探究2016年以来一系列去产能政策对煤炭企业市场价值的影响,从定量的角度解释去产能政策的实施成效.分析认为,煤炭企业非正常收益对去产能政策反应迅速,短期停产停建等整改性政策对煤炭企业产生负向冲击且持续时间较长,而中长期指导性文件的发布未对煤炭企业产生明显影响.进一步考察煤炭替代行业水力发电和新能源行业,发现这两种行业受政策影响与煤炭行业相反,水力发电行业的替代效应要强于新能源行业.

Using the event analysis method,we have investigated the impact of a series of cutting overcapacity policies on the market value of coal companies since 2016 and explained the effectiveness of the implementation of cutting overcapacity policy from a quantitative perspective.The analysis believes that the abnormal returns of coal enterprises respond to the capacity reduction policy quickly,and the short-term suspension of production,construction,and other rectification policies hurt coal enterprises and last for a long time.However,the release of m id-and long-term guidance documents has not produced obvious effects on coal enterprises.Further investigation of the hydropower generation and new energy industries in the coal replacement industry and found that these two industries are affected by policies opposite to the coal industry.The substitution effect of the hydropower industry is stronger than that of the new energy industry.