宏观审慎政策与货币政策目标协调效应分析——基于叠加和抵消效应的经验实证

Analysis on the Coordination Effect of Macro-Prudential Policy and Monetary Policy--Empirical Evidence Based on Superposition and Offset Effects

加强宏观审慎政策与货币政策协调配合,是国际金融危机以来各国金融监管改革的共识.采用VAR模型,对我国宏观审慎政策和货币政策中间目标与最终目标的叠加、抵消效应进行实证检验.结果显示:两大政策最终目标之间的叠加效应大于中间目标,但方向变动频繁,稳定性较差,而中间目标之间的抵消效应小于最终目标,政策预期稳定且外溢性小,较易把握和控制;两大政策目标实施中均保持了基本的独立性,但宏观审慎政策对货币政策影响较大,独立性更强.据此,应构建以中间目标为中心的协调配合机制,灵活运用政策目标间的叠加、抵消效应;增强宏观审慎政策抑制顺周期行为的调节力度,以便有效矫正货币政策逆周期“超调”行为,进一步提升两大政策协调配合的效率.

Strengthening the coordination of macro-prudential policies and monetary policies is the consensus of financial regulatory reforms in various countries since the international financial crisis.The VAR model is used to empirically test the superposition and offset effects of the intermediate and final targets of my country's macro-prudential and monetary policies.The results show that the superposition effect between the final goals of the two major policies is greater than the intermediate goal,but the direction changes frequently and the stability is poor,and the offset effect between the intermediate goals is less than the final goal,the policy is expected to be stable and the spillover is small,which is easier to grasp and control;the implementation of the two major policy objectives has maintained basic independence,but macro-prudential policies have a greater impact on monetary policy and are more independent.This paper hereby puts forward policy suggestions:build a coordination mechanism centering on intermediate goals,flexibly use the superposition and offset effects between policy goals,increase the extent to which macro-prudential policies curb pro-cyclical behavior,effectively correct the counter-cyclical"overshooting"behavior of monetary policy,and further improve the efficiency of policy coordination.