摘要
针对观测数据趋势为上凸型的序列,利用传统的残差修正GM(1,1)模型难以表现其实际趋势变化的情况。鉴于此,提出了一种新的GM(1,1)残差修正方法,通过分析GM(1,1)模型对上凸序列建模时残差的变化规律,采用残差序列分段、负值正化处理的方法,对分段处理后的残差序列进行拟合预测。该方法已被应用于工程实例中,取得了较理想的拟合预测效果,验证了其在实际工程应用中的可行性。
Aiming at the observed data with upward convexity sequence tendency,the traditional GM(1,1)model is difficult to show the actual variation trend.On the basis of this,we proposed a new GM(1,1)residual correction method.At first,we analyzed the variation rules of the residuals in the GM(1,1)model for the convexity sequence.And then,we used the methods of segmenting residuals and negative values to fit and predict the segmented residuals.Finally,we applied this method into engineering examples,which had achieved a better fitting prediction effect,and further proved the feasibility of this method in practical engineering.
出处
《地理空间信息》
2020年第7期82-84,113,I0006,共5页
Geospatial Information
关键词
上凸序列
残差修正
GM(1
1)模型
正化分段
upward convexity sequence
residual correction
GM(1
1)model
positive subsection
