2018—2019年度山东省小麦市场行情分析与展望

Analysis and Outlook of Wheat Market Quotation in Shandong Province in 2018—2019

山东省是我国小麦生产第二大省,小麦产业的发展具有产量潜力高、生产技术水平高、品质优良、加工能力强等突出特点和优势。通过时间序列分析,研究了山东省小麦总产量、种植面积、单产变化情况以及2018—2019年度山东省小麦生产和市场运行特点。2018—2019年度山东小麦种植面积减少,单产和总产增加,收获时间较往年提前2~3天,且小麦品质是近年来最好的;小麦开秤价较低,且新陈麦同价时间比往年提前;前期各收购主体积极性高,收购进度快,后期逐渐平缓;部分农户存惜售心理;面粉企业价格透明,贸易商利润空间被压缩,区域间价差缩小。针对山东省小麦市场供需面临的问题,提出了未来发展思路。

Shandong is the second largest province of wheat production in China.The development of wheat industry has the prominent characteristics and advantages such as higher yield potential,higher production technology level,better quality and strong processing ability.Through the time series analysis,the changes of total wheat yield,planting area,yield per unit,and the characteristics of wheat production and market operating in Shandong Province in 2018—2019 were studied in this paper.In 2018—2019,the wheat planting area in Shandong reduced,the yield per unit and total yield increased.The harvest time was 2 ~ 3 days earlier than that in previous years,and the grain quality was the best in recent years.The wheat price of begin business was lower,and the time of new wheat price equivalent to old wheat price was earlier than normal years.The purchase progress was fast at earlier stage because of the higher enthusiasm of purchase subjects,and levelled off at later stage for the psychology of reluctant to sell of some farmers.The price of flour enterprises became transparent,the profit of merchants was compressed,and the price difference between regions was reduced.Some ideas for future development of Shandong wheat industry were put forward based on the problems of Shandong wheat market supply and demand needed to face.