设立扶贫改革试验区的政策效应评估——来自广东省清远市的经验证据

Evaluation of the policy effect of setting up poverty alleviation reform pilot area——Empirical evidence from Qingyuan City,Guangdong Province

设立扶贫改革试验区对推动扶贫改革创新、探索适合本国国情的扶贫发展道路和建立2020年后扶贫时代长效扶贫运行机制具有重要意义。本文将国家设立广东省清远市为首批扶贫改革试验区之一作为准实验,基于2000-2017年广东省县域面板数据,采用倾向得分匹配-双重差分法(PSM-DID)来识别扶贫改革试验区的设立对推动当地经济发展的政策效应。研究表明:①在无控制个体和时间效应下,试验区的设立显著提升了当地经济发展水平;控制个体或时间效应情况下,仅对实际人均GDP的影响较为显著且处理组比对照组平均提高了11.67%;②在考虑其他影响因素时,政府支出规模和储蓄水平并未对当地经济发展起到积极作用,即存在政府支出对私人投资“挤出效应”;③异质性分析表明少数民族区县与普通区县(县级市)相比,试验区的设立并未对二者产生显著差异。此外,该政策的实施也并未对清远市周边邻近地区产生正向的“溢出效应”。④通过中介效应得出该政策的扶贫具体措施明显提升了当地经济的发展,尤其在第二产业、金融贷款和教育等方面效果显著。最后,本文对此提出几点政策建议。

The establishment of the poverty alleviation reform pilot area is of great significance to promote the innovation of poverty alleviation reform,explore the poverty alleviation development path suitable for the national conditions and establish a long-term poverty alleviation operation mechanism in the post-2020 poverty alleviation era.In this paper,the establishment of Qingyuan City in Guangdong Province as one of the first experimental areas of poverty alleviation and reform is regarded as a quasi natural experiment.Based on the panel data of counties in Guangdong Province from 2000 to 2017,the PSM-DID method is used to identify the policy effect of the establishment of poverty alleviation and reform experimental area on promoting local economic development.The results show that:(1)without control individual and time effect,the establishment of the experimental area significantly improves the local economic development level;while when control individual or time effect,only the impact on the actual per capita GDP is more significant and the treatment group is 11.67%higher than the control group on average;(2)when considering other factors,the scale of government expenditure and the level of savings do not play an important role in the local economic development;(3)The heterogeneity analysis shows that the establishment of the experimental area has no significant difference between the Minority Counties and the ordinary counties(county-level cities).In addition,the implementation of the policy has not had a positive"spillover effect"on the surrounding areas of Qingyuan City.(4)through the intermediary effect,the specific poverty alleviation measures of the policy have significantly improved the development of local economy,especially in the secondary industry,financial loans,education and other measures.Finally,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions.