“雪中送炭”抑或“锦上添花”:地方金融发展、金融脆弱度与出口关系稳定度

“Timely Help” or “Additional Assistance”: Local Financial Development,Financial Vulnerability and Stability of Export Relations

在后危机时代国际逆全球化浪潮涌动的国际背景下,本文基于当前供给侧结构性改革深化和"稳外贸"的政策背景,在高度细化的微观层面上探讨了地方金融发展、金融脆弱度与出口关系稳定度之间的关系。本文使用银监会金融许可证查询系统,手工收集并整理了地级市级别的银行信息,同时将观察窗口拓展至金融危机后,基于海关数据库,识别出企业-HS6位码产品-目的国级别的出口关系稳定度。基准结果表明,对于金融脆弱度越高的企业,地方金融发展越能促进其出口关系的稳定;进一步的讨论还指出了上述机制体现在地方金融发展通过改善融资帮助企业对抗来自目的国市场的"坏运气"冲击。拓展性的研究则发现,地方金融发展的影响更多表现为"锦上添花",而非"雪中送炭"。具体来说,首先,地方金融发展未能对亟需融资支持的民营企业、中小企业和试探性出口萌芽"雪中送炭",对其出口关系稳定度未能通过改善融资表现出更强的作用;其次,地方金融发展对于退出企业的挽救作用明显弱于它对产品转换的抑制作用。仅有当面临如金融危机等整体性负面冲击时,地方金融发展才对出口关系稳定度的保护作用更强。本文的研究结论从"稳外贸"的角度为我国下一步的银行业结构性改革的深化给出了政策性建议,即在进一步推动银行结构性竞争的同时,也需要考虑引进多种形式的金融主体,推动融资渠道的多样化,降低对银行融资的依赖。

With the international anti-globalization surge in the post-crisis era,the deepening of supply-side structural reform and the policy for"stabilizing foreign trade",this paper explores the relationship between local financial development,financial vulnerability and the stability of export relations at a highly refined microlevel.Based on the CBRC financial license inquiry system,this paper manually collects and collates the bank information at the prefecture level.At the same time,based on the customs database,this paper extends the observation window to after the financial crisis,and identifies the stability of export relations at the enterpriseproduct-importer level.The benchmark results show that for enterprises with higher financial vulnerability,local financial development has a stronger protective effect on the stability of their export relations.Further discussion also points out that the role of financing channels is to help fight against"bad luck"shocks from the export market.Further research finds that the impact of local financial development is more"Additional Assistance"than"Timely Help".Specifically,1)for private enterprises,SMEs and export trials that need financing support urgently,the local financial development fails to show a stronger protective effect on the stability of export relations by improving financing,i.e.,not"Timely Help".2)Local financial development helps more to prevent product shift than to keep dying enterprises alive,i.e.,"Additional Assistance".3)Only when there are overall negative shocks such as financial crisis,the higher the financial vulnerability,the stronger the protective effect of local financial development on the stability of export relations,i.e.,"Timely Help".From the perspective of"stabilizing foreign trade",the conclusion of this paper gives policy suggestions for the further structural reform of banking industry in China.While promoting the structural competition in banking industry,the policy makers also need to consider introducing various forms of financial entities,promote the diversification of financing channels and reduce the dependence on bank financing.