农业低碳发展水平及驱动因子研究——以四川省为例

Study on the Development Level and Driving Factors of Low Carbon Agriculture in Sichuan Province

选取中国西部地区四川省作为研究对象,应用政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)推荐的碳排放模型测算2000~2016年区域内农业碳排放量及强度;采用Tapio脱钩理论分析区域内农业碳排放与经济增长的特征,并评估农业经济低碳发展状况;通过构建LMDI碳排放因素分解模型研究各驱动因子的贡献值,根据驱动因子的影响和作用提出农业低碳发展的对策。结果表明:研究期内四川农业碳排放量及强度平均每年分别以1.52%、1.18%增长率呈上升趋势,其中农膜是最主要贡献者,占45.2%;农业碳排放与经济增长的脱钩关系由最初不理想状态逐渐变成相对理想状态,在2013、2016年则呈现出完全脱钩的理想状态。研究分析得出农业经济快速增长是导致碳排放增加的主要驱动因素,农业生产效率是影响碳排放增长的关键抑制因素。

The paper selects Sichuan as the research object for which has priority in Western Region development strategy. The methodology in GHG inventory guidelines provided by the IPCC was used to estimate the agricultural carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity from 2000 to 2016 in Sichuan. Using Tapio’s decoupling model to estimate the state of decoupling between agricultural carbon emissions and GDP and evaluate the development level. Study the contribution value of each driving factor by building LMDI carbon emission factor decomposition model. According to the influence and function of driving factors, the countermeasures of low carbon development in agriculture are put forward. The results showed that during the research period, the average annual growth rate of agricultural carbon emission and intensity in Sichuan was 1.52% and 1.18%, respectively, with the agricultural film as the main contributor accounting for 45.2%. The decoupling relationship has gradually changed from an initially unsatisfactory state to a relatively ideal state. The year of 2013 and 2016 showed a strong ideal state decoupling. The rapid growth of economic scale is a major factor leading to increased carbon emissions and the agricultural efficiency is a key factor in reducing carbon emissions.