经济金融化对实体经济影响的区域差异研究——基于省级面板数据的空间计量研究

Regional Differences in the Impact of Economic Financialization on the Real Economy——Empirical Research Based on Spatial Panel Model

自2003年以来,我国金融业发展迅速并表现出区域集聚的现象。随着改革深入,区域金融化程度加深,影响着本地区和邻近地区的实体经济发展。通过选取省际面板数据并遴选最优时空权重矩阵进行空间计量建模,研究发现:(1)基于球面距离构建的时空权重矩阵与实体经济指标矩阵的有效相关性最强;(2)金融化的直接和间接效应均为正,能够提高本地区和邻近地区实体经济发展水平;(3)人力资本质量提高、政府消费支出增加和城镇化水平提升均具有经济增长的正效应,而增加第三产业占比和外商投资过度均抑制经济增长。本文从推动金融创新、推行差异金融政策、引导金融良性竞争和发挥城市群功能等角度给出政策建议。

Since 2003,China’s financial industry has developed rapidly and demonstrated the phenomenon of regional agglomeration.With the deepening of reforms,there are obvious differences in the degree of regional financial development.The spillover effects of financialization have an impact on the real economy of local region and its neighboring regions.This paper selects the provincial panel data to construct the spatial econometric model,and the selected optimal spatiotemporal weight matrix is included in the model for analysis.The empirical results show that:(1)The spatial temporal weight matrix constructed based on the spherical distance has the strongest correlation with the real economic indicator matrix,which can be applied to the SAC individual fixed effect model for empirical analysis;(2)The direct and indirect effects of financialization on the real economy are positive,which can improve the real economy development of local region and its neighboring regions;(3)Improving the level of human capital and urbanization,increasing government consumption expenditure can promote the growth of the real economy,while the increase in the proportion of the tertiary industry and excessive foreign investment play a negative inhibitory role.Finally,the policy recommendations are given in the perspectives of implementing differential financial policies,promoting financial innovation,guiding benign financial competition,and exerting the functions of urban agglomerations.