人力资本结构高级化、产业结构与经济增长——基于新结构经济学视角

Advanced Human Capital Structure,Industrial Structure and Economic Growth:From the Perspective of New Structural Economics

根据新结构经济学的禀赋结构供求原理和循环累积因果原理,利用1999年-2018年的中国省级面板数据进行单方程模型回归和联立方程模型回归并运用"U"检验,验证了人力资本结构高级化与经济增长之间的倒"U"型关系,同时证明了经济增长能够通过产业结构的变动和教育培训体系的变动对人力资本结构高级化产生促进作用;并且通过分区域回归的方法,间接证明了人力资本结构高级化的最优水平随经济发展水平或产业结构的不同而不同,同时发现相较于东中部地区,西部地区的人力资本结构高级化对经济增长的影响不存在倒"U"型关系,而是呈显著的正相关关系。此外,在回归结果中,通过"U"检验,还发现政府支出比重和消费强度与经济增长之间可能存在"U"型关系;而人均教育经费和每十万人高等院校数对人力资本结构高级化的影响分别可能存在边际效应的递增和递减的趋势。

According to the principle of endowment structure supply and demand and the principle of circular cumulative causality in new structural economics,using the Chinese provincial panel data from 1999-2018 to carry out the regression of single equation model and the regression of the joint equation model and apply the"U"test,this paper verifies the inverted"U"-type relationship between advanced human capital structure and economic growth,and proves that economic growth can promote the advanced human capital structure by the change of industrial structure and the change of education and training system;Indirectly,it is proved that the optimal level of the advanced human capital structure varies with the level of economic development or industrial structure,and it is found that compared with the eastern and central regions,the influence of the advanced human capital structure on economic growth in the western region does not have the inverted"U"-type relationship,but shows a significant positive correlation.In addition,in the regression results of this paper,through the"U"test,it is found that there may be a"U"-type relationship between the proportion of government expenditure and economic growth,which is same as the relationship between consumption intensity and economic growth.Meanwhile,the per capita education expenditure and the impact of the number of institutions of higher learning per 100,000 people may have the trend of increasing and decreasing marginal effect on the advanced human capital structure.