基于区域动态CGE模型的雾霾治理政策模拟分析——以京津冀地区为例

Simulation Analysis of Smog Control Policy based on Regional Dynamic CGE Model:A Case Study of Jing-Jin-Ji Region

21世纪以来,全国性的雾霾污染问题一直未得到有效解决,尤其是京津冀地区更为突出,治理需求十分迫切。在环保部提出2030年城市空气质量目标的前提下,文章构建了京津冀区域动态可计算一般均衡模型,模拟硫税、消费税、清洁能源补贴和区域补偿等五种政策情景下雾霾治理路径以及宏观经济受到的冲击。结果表明,硫税与消费税具有良好的雾霾治理效果,能优化经济结构和能源结构,但是对经济的冲击较大,尤其对清洁能源产业有明显影响。实证表明,清洁能源补贴和区域利益补偿可以有效减轻税收的负面影响。建议综合实施税收、补贴与补偿三类政策,在实现治理目标的同时,能对经济的影响降到最低,从而为区域经济高质量发展提供保障。

Since the 21 st century, the national smog pollution problem has not been effectively solved, especially in the Jing-Jin-Ji region, and the need for its control is very urgent. Under the premise of the Ministry of Environmental Protection’s 2030 urban air quality target, this paper constructs a dynamic CGE model of Jing-Jin-Ji region, which can simulate the smog control path and the impact on macro economy under the five policy scenarios of sulfur tax, consumption tax, clean energy subsidies and regional compensation etc. The results show that sulfur tax and consumption tax have a good smog control effect and can optimize the economic structure and energy structure, but they have a great impact on the economy, especially the clean energy industry. Empirical evidence shows that clean energy subsidies and regional benefit compensation can effectively mitigate the negative effects of taxation. It is recommended to comprehensively implement the three policies of taxation, subsidies and compensation, while achieving the smog control objectives, it can minimize the impact on the economy and provide guarantee for the high-quality development of the regional economy.