基于坡度和降雨强度的砂土泥石流预警模型分析

Forewarning Model Analyses of Sandy Debris Flow based on Slope and Rainfall Intensity

泥石流灾害可造成巨大经济财产损失及人员伤亡,对泥石流预警模型的研究能够帮助人们认识泥石流的发展规律,减少由此引起的生命财产损失。从模型试验出发,研究了泥石流启动时间与坡度、降雨强度之间的关系。通过试验数据分析发现,在该试验水平下,坡度和降雨强度对于泥石流启动时间的影响都是高度显著的,区别在于坡度改变造成的启动时间改变量近似呈等量变化,而降雨强度改变造成的启动时间改变量呈差量变化。利用试验结果进行回归分析,提出了能够同时考虑坡度和降雨强度的I-D修正预警模型,为泥石流灾害进行快速初步预警提供参考依据。

Debris flow disaster causes huge economic property loss and human casualties.To carry out studies on forewarning model of debris flow can help understand the development of debris flow and reduce the loss of people’s property.The relationships between slope,rainfall intensity and activation time of debris flow based on the model tests are studied in this paper.It is found that the influences of slope and rainfall intensity on the activate time of debris flow are both highly significant at the test environment through the analyses of test data.The difference is that the residual quantities of activate time with slope changes are similar to be equivalent;and that with rainfall intensity changes are dispersional.A modified IDforewarning model that takes slope and rainfall intensity into consideration is proposed through fitting analyses of measure data.This research is to provide reference for fast forewarning of debris flow disaster.