企业最大用电需量预测模型及实测偏差

The prediction model of the maximum electricity demand of enterprises and the measured deviation

精确的最大用电需量预测有利于合理安排负荷运行,有利于降低用电成本,对于节能方法的选择、用电策略的制定以及对电网电力调度有着重要的意义。基于灰色预测法对企业最大用电量展开预测模型分析,指引企业合理调整用电负荷及配备储能装置的充放电来顺应电网负荷和电价的变化,以达到节省能源、削减用户电费压力、保护用户安全用电、提升电网稳定性和安全性的目标。

Accurate prediction of the maximum power demand is conducive to the reasonable arrangement of load operation and the reduction of power consumption cost. It is of great significance to the selection of energy-saving methods, the formulation of power consumption strategies and the power grid dispatching. Based on the gray prediction method, this paper analyzes the prediction model of the maximum power consumption of the enterprise, and guides the enterprise to reasonably adjust the power load and the charge and discharge of the energy storage device to comply with the changes of the power grid load and the electricity price, so as to achieve the goal of saving energy, reducing the pressure of the user’s electricity charge, protecting the user’s safe power consumption, and improving the stability and safety of the power grid.