内蒙古自治区城乡居民基本医疗保险一体化中个人筹资额度预测研究

Prediction and Research of Personal Financing Quota in the Integration of Basic Medical Insurance for Urban and Rural Residents in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region

目的:在内蒙古自治区城乡居民基本医疗保险一体化的过程中,预测不同补偿方案下居民个人的筹资额度的未来趋势,对未来5年的个人筹资额度、居民人均可支配收入以及居民人均消费性支出等指标数据做出预测,并对增长幅度、差额情况等问题进行进一步研究。方法:选取优化后的无偏非齐次灰色预测模型的直接建模法,进行精度检测,预测各项指标与数据;运用灰色关联模型,进一步测算各方案下个人筹资额度与城乡居民人均可支配收入、人均消费性支出等指标之间的关联度。结果:不同补偿方案下的居民个人筹资额度在2018—2022年这5年内预期均稳定增长,5年间平均增长幅度达到48%以上,年平均增长率达到15%以上。三类、四类补偿方案居民个人筹资额度相对较为适中,未来5年内人均筹资额度为148.68~287.08元和162.20~315.30元,且与各项指标的关联程度较高,未来的可实现性较大。结论:城乡居民医疗保险一体化筹资进程中,应关注居民个人筹资额度的增幅,着重考虑农村居民的经济状况,选取合适的方案,因地制宜,有序推进。

Objective:In the process of the integration of basic medical insurance for urban and rural residents in Inner Mongolia Autonomous region,to predict the future trend of individual financing amount of residents under different compensation schemes,forecast the index data of personal financing amount,per capita disposable income and per capita consumption expenditure in the next five years,and further study the growth rate,difference and other issues.Methods:The direct modeling method of the optimized unbiased non-homogeneous grey prediction model is selected to test the accuracy and predict the indexes and data,and the grey correlation model is used to further calculate the correlation between the amount of personal financing and the per capita disposable income and per capita consumption expenditure of urban and rural residents under each scheme.Results:The individual financing quota of residents under different compensation schemes is expected to increase steadily in the five years from 2018 to 2022,with an average growth rate is more than 48%and an average annual growth rate is more than 15%.The amount of individual financing of the third and fourth types of compensation schemes are relatively moderate,with a per capita financing amount of 148.68~287.08 yuan and 162.20~315.30 yuan in the next five years,with a high degree of correlation with various indicators and greater reliability in the future.Conclusion:In the process of integrated financing of medical insurance for urban and rural residents,it needs to pay attention to the increase of individual financing quota of residents,focus on the economic situation of rural residents,select appropriate schemes,adjust measures to local conditions and promote them in an orderly manner.