内蒙古自治区城乡居民基本医疗保险一体化中政府与社会筹资额度预测研究

Prediction and Further Research on the Government and Social Financing Amount of the Integration of Basic Medical Insurance for Urban and Rural Residents in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region

目的:在内蒙古自治区城乡居民基本医疗保险一体化的过程中,预测不同补偿方案下政府与社会的筹资额度的未来趋势,并对未来5年的政府与社会筹资额度、地方GDP、地方财政收入及地方财政医疗卫生支出等指标数据做出预测,并对增长幅度、占比情况等问题进行进一步研究。方法:选取优化后的前置背景值、后置背景值以及时间响应函数后的模型,进行精度检测,预测各项指标与数据;运用系统仿真模型,综合考虑老龄化、城镇化等重要因素,进一步测算了筹资方案(三类、四类方案)与财政指标之间的趋势与关系。结果:在综合考虑老龄化与城镇化的加速进程后,本研究发现在2035年三类方案的政府与社会筹资额度与地方财政医疗卫生支出达到平衡点,之后地方财政医疗卫生支出小于政府与社会筹资额度;2040年四类方案的政府与社会筹资额度与地方财政医疗卫生支出达到平衡点,之后地方财政医疗卫生支出小于政府与社会筹资额度。结论:应着重考虑内蒙古自治区当前的财政状况,应关注政府与社会筹资额度的增幅。

Objective:In the integration process of basic medical insurance for urban and rural residents in Inner Mongolia Autonomous region,to predict the future trend of financing amount between the government and the society under different compensation schemes.It also forecasts the index data such as the amount of government and social financing,local GDP,local financial revenue,local financial and health expenditure in the next five years,and makes a further study on the growth rate,proportion and other issues.Methods:The optimized pre-background value,post-background value and the model after time response function are selected to detect the accuracy and predict the indexes and data.By using the system simulation model and considering the important factors such as aging and urbanization,it further calculates the trend and relationship between financing schemes(three types and four types of schemes) and financial indicators.Results:After considering the accelerated process of aging and urbanization,it finds that the amount of government and social financing and local financial and health expenditure would reach a balance point in 2035.After that,the local financial medical and health expenditure would be less than the amount of government and social financing.In 2040,the amount of government and social financing and local financial medical and health expenditure would reach a balance point,and then the local financial medical and health expenditure was less than the amount of government and social financing.Conclusion:It needed to focus on the current financial situation of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and pay attention to the increase of the amount of government and social financing.