中国与中东欧国家贸易的竞争互补关系及动态变化

A Dynamic Study on the Trade Competitiveness and Trade Comple-mentarity between China and CEEC

本文以中国与中东欧双边货物贸易数据为基础,采用社会网络分析方法,构建了中国与中东欧国家之间的进出口关系网络、竞争关系网络和互补关系网络,结合凝聚子群分析法,研究了中国与中东欧国家货物贸易竞争和互补关系及动态变化。研究表明:(1)中国与中东欧国家货物贸易增长速度快,但总量偏小、贸易结构不平衡。(2)在进出口网络关系中,网络整体集中化趋势明显。中国处于网络的中心位置,在整个网络中拥有推很强的影响力和辐射性。(3)在竞争、互补关系网络中,网络整体的竞争性和互补性都在增强。中东欧国家占据网络的中心位置,国家间呈现较强的互补关系,但竞争性依然存在。中国与中东欧国家的贸易互补关系明显强于竞争关系。(4)中国和中东欧国家中存在4个凝聚子群。进出口凝聚子群非常稳定,呈现以地理位置为特征的集聚。竞争子群和互补子群富于变化,呈现以产业分工为特征的集聚。

Based on the data between China and CEEC(Central and Eastern Europe),this paper constructs the import-export relationship network,competition relation Network and complementary relationship network,studies the competition and complementarity of goods trade between China and CEEC and its dynamic changes.The research shows that:(1)China and CEEC'trade growth rate is fast,but the total amount is small and the trade structure is unbalanced.(2)In the Import-export network,the overall centralization trend of the network is obvious.China is at the center of the network and has a strong influence and radiation throughout the network.Hungary,Poland and the Czech Republic are also in a central position.(3)In the competition,complementary network,the overall competitiveness and complementarity of the network are increasing.CEEC occupy the center of the network,showing a strong complementary relationship,but competition still exists.China is in the edge of the network,but there is an increasing trend.The complementary relationship between China and CEEC is obviously stronger than that of competitive relations.(4)There are 4 condensed subgroups in China and CEEC.The condensed subgroup of the import and export is very stable,showing the agglomeration characterized by geographical location.The competition subgroup and the complementary subgroup are rich in variety and present the agglomeration which is characterized by industrial division of labor.Based on this,this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions.