我国家庭应急产业发展的动力机制与路径探析——基于自组织理论和事件系统理论的危机事件分析

Exploration on the Dynamic Mechanism and Path of China's Family Emergency Industry Development:Crisis Event Analysis Based on Self--organizing Theory and Event System Theory

近年来,以突发性公共危机为代表的"黑天鹅"事件不仅给整个社会的经济发展增添了许多不确定性,同时也给国民经济带来了巨大损失,因此,如何提高全民的危机防控能力是完善我国应急管理体系的当务之急。本文基于自组织理论和事件系统理论深入剖析了突发性公共危机事件对于我国家庭应急产业的启示,目的是厘清影响我国家庭应急产业发展的相关因素,以此来更好地推动我国家庭应急产业的发展。424份样本的Fieller法研究结果显示:随着危机事件的发展,民众对于应急产品的购买意愿呈现U型变化趋势,这反映了危机前家庭应急产品在民众日常生活中的缺位,以及危机之后民众备灾防灾意识的增强。因而,推动我国家庭应急产业发展的关键在于引导全民在灾害意识上形成价值自觉,打造事前防灾备灾,事中自救互救,事后"反哺"公共救援的全方位公共应急管理体系。

During the past decades,the emergent public crisis represented by the“Black Swan”event have not only increased uncertainty in the economic development of the whole society,but also brought huge losses to the national economy of China.Therefore,crisis prevention and control ability of the wide public play an urgent role in improving the emergency management system of China.Based on self-organizing theory and event system theory,this paper performs an in-depth analysis of the enlightenment of emergent public crisis events on China's family emergency industry.It aims at determining the factors that afect the development of China's family emergency industry,so as to better accelerate the development of the industry.The results of the Fieller method of 424 samples show that with the development of crisis events,citizens'purchase intention of emergency products presents a U-shape,revealing the absence of family emergency products in daily life before the crisis and the increased awareness of disaster preparedness and prevention after the crisis.Thus,to promote the development of China's family emergency industry,the key step is to guide the whole people to form a value consciousness about disasters.It is essential to build a comprehensive public emergency management system that takes precautions against disasters and makes preparations beforehand,realize self and mutual life.saving,and promote public rescue afterwards.