环境变化对石栈道站径流量的影响研究

Impact of environmental change on the runoff of Shizhandao Hydrological Station

环境变化是导致流域水文过程扰动的主要因素,评估其相对影响对于制定流域水资源规划和管理策略具有重要意义。采用非参数Mann-Kendall检验和Pettitt检验来诊断石栈道站径流的变化趋势和突变,以水文气象资料为基础,构建基于VIC径流模拟模型,并从不同年代来定量分析变化期的环境变化对年径流的影响。结果表明:石栈道站径流呈现显著下降趋势;突变发生在1979年,并据此将研究期划分为径流基准期(1959-1979年)和变化期(1980-1991年,2006-2015年);模型在研究区域内具有较高的适用性,Nash-sutcliffe效率系数和相对误差分别达到模型要求的0.75以上及10%以下;在1980-1991和2006-2015年两个时段内,气候变化和人类活动对径流减少的影响分别为14.4%、85.6%和15.4%、84.6%。石栈道站径流变化受人类活动影响较大。

Environmental change is the main factor leading to the disturbance of hydrological processes in a river basin,the evaluation of which is of great importance to the formulation of water resources planning and management strategies.Non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Pettitt test were used to diagnose the variation trend and abrupt changes of the runoff in the section of Shizhandao Station.Based on hydrological and meteorological data,the VIC model was set up to simulate runoff processes.The influence of environmental change on annual runoff was quantified during different human activity period.The results showed that the runoff of Shizhandao Station presented a decreasing trend,and the abrupt change year appeared in 1979;based on which,the study period was divided into runoff base period from 1959 to 1979 and two change periods,namely 1980-1991 and 2006-2015.The model had a high applicability to the research area,and both the Nash-sutcliffe efficiency coefficient and relative error met the requirements of more than 0.75 and less than 10%.During 1980-1991 and 2006-2015,the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff reduction were 14.4%,85.6%,15.4%and 84.6%,respectively.Human activities were the main driving force of runoff change of Shizhandao Station.